Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-10 0.440381 0.508593 0.582962 0.669943 0.768758 0.877400 1.005766
2025-08-17 0.319688 0.411189 0.520960 0.661776 0.836993 1.047163 1.317626
2025-08-24 0.251867 0.351071 0.478814 0.654132 0.887072 1.184335 1.590554
2025-08-31 0.201479 0.300575 0.435990 0.632566 0.908227 1.278208 1.808907
2025-09-07 0.181201 0.286211 0.437013 0.666350 1.002534 1.472685 2.174055
2025-09-14 0.151724 0.253136 0.405836 0.648516 1.019391 1.558337 2.392124
2025-09-21 0.128310 0.225317 0.377964 0.630638 1.031829 1.635574 2.600926
2025-09-28 0.110078 0.202847 0.354980 0.616526 1.046750 1.715337 2.817107
2025-10-05 0.100308 0.193035 0.350827 0.631414 1.107629 1.868934 3.157103
2025-10-12 0.094647 0.189522 0.356510 0.662682 1.197209 2.073741 3.592381
2025-10-19 0.087322 0.181861 0.353879 0.678884 1.262143 2.242490 3.980306
2025-10-26 0.079484 0.172078 0.346151 0.684834 1.309156 2.383923 4.331663
2025-11-02 0.071224 0.160524 0.334168 0.682371 1.342103 2.505857 4.662703
2025-11-09 0.063189 0.148311 0.319539 0.673415 1.362451 2.607590 4.966909
2025-11-16 0.056324 0.137533 0.306359 0.665598 1.383686 2.711676 5.281702
2025-11-23 0.049015 0.124644 0.287252 0.643679 1.375336 2.760327 5.498144
2025-11-30 0.047474 0.124705 0.295264 0.678009 1.480339 3.027184 6.136211
2025-12-07 0.041828 0.114202 0.279198 0.659887 1.477849 3.089073 6.391067
2025-12-14 0.036875 0.104607 0.263937 0.641719 1.473262 3.145870 6.638979
2025-12-21 0.032773 0.096508 0.251078 0.627379 1.475147 3.214996 6.914777
2025-12-28 0.030933 0.094062 0.251212 0.642508 1.541651 3.418594 7.471275
2026-01-04 0.030180 0.094453 0.258228 0.674281 1.647231 3.709056 8.221326
2026-01-11 0.028613 0.092340 0.258798 0.690745 1.719731 3.935127 8.852555